Colombia ‘BBB-/A-3’ Foreign Currency Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative

S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘BBB-‘ long-term foreign currency and ‘BBB’ long-term local currency sovereign credit ratings on Colombia. The outlook on long-term ratings remains negative. It also affirmed the ‘A-3’ short-term foreign currency and ‘A-2’ short-term local currency ratings. The negative outlook reflects the risk that a sharp economic contraction this year and only moderate economic recovery in 2021 could erode the sovereign’s financial profile. Weakening of public finances may persist longer than expected, resulting in a downgrade. However, the outlook could be revised to stable within the next 12-18 months if the government undertakes steps to stabilize the economy, sustain GDP growth prospects, and strengthen fiscal policy. After an economic contraction of 8% in 2020 S&P expects a rebound of 5.5% in 2021 and average growth of 4% during 2022-2023. Colombia is likely to regain its pre-COVID-19 output level only by late 2022.

Source: S&P Global